2025 in Ottawa real estate looked scary in the headlines, but on the ground it was much more boring – and that is actually good news.
2025: What Really Happened
• The market stabilized: total sales were slightly higher than 2024 and clearly stronger than 2023.
• Prices did not crash: the overall average and median both edged up a bit for the year.
• December “down 6%” sounds dramatic, but it was only about 40 fewer sales across the whole city.
By Property Type
• Single-detached: still the steady workhorse; values grew modestly and higher-end homes kept moving.
• Townhomes: took on a lot of new supply but held their ground on volume better than many expected.
• Condos: the soft spot; more listings, slower sales, and buyers very sensitive to carrying costs.
Why It Felt Slower
• More inventory meant buyers could think instead of panic.
• Affordability stayed tight, so people became payment‑focused, not “fear of missing out” focused.
• Headlines focused on percentages, not the relatively small number of actual units shifting.
2026: The Playbook
• No wild swings: expect a “balanced rebound,” not a boom or bust.
• Detached homes: watch the average price; if federal job cuts hit move‑up buyers, that average may soften even if underlying values remain stable.
• Towns & condos: more negotiation room, especially where investors are feeling renewal pressure.
• Your opportunity: being organized (pre‑approved, clear on budget, clear on must‑haves) will matter more than trying to time the bottom.
The Wild Card: U.S. Midterms
• The U.S. midterm election will influence bond markets and, by extension, Canadian fixed mortgage rates.
• If U.S. policy turns more market‑friendly after midterms and pressure eases on rates, confidence here could improve into late 2026.
• Think of it as a dial, not a switch: small shifts there can quietly improve affordability and activity here.
At RE/MAX Hallmark, as the number one Ottawa brokerage by market share, the data lines up with what the team sees every day: this is a strategic market, not a speculative one – and that’s where good advice creates real wins.
Murtaza Siddiqui
Broker | RE/MAX Hallmark Realty Group
📧 [email protected]
📞 (613) 805-1111
